‘good faith’ – a legislative event or an earned value!

” Australia now has some of the highest electricity costs in the developed world” – the claim was part of a upcoming conference promotion. Why is this so? We can easily say the reason is a range of federal and state government policies. With some bemusement we could even say the amateurs must have been in charge when all this happened, and they could not help themselves but to make changes without understanding the consequences. Another way of saying it is they thought ‘good faith’ was a legislative event and not an earned value!

If you carry over the ‘good faith’ argument as a legislative event, you can easily see how the intention could be manipulated according to the stronger lobbying power of the day. There does not need to be a business case for the policy, it just needs to be a positioning matter for what is ideal. In terms of positioning you might see how the carbon price became known as the carbon tax in the repeal legislation (the definition of ‘price’ was changed to reflect emotive wording ‘tax’), that the renewable energy target became a plaything for posturing the adverse effects and without evidence is said to have contributed to cause energy prices to rise.

It still happens, again and again. The driver – we need change to show we are positive about business. Business according to amateurs is ‘doing something’, and that so important! Think of these examples: Gas market reform needed, it will increase gas production and ease the pricing situation. Maybe it would – if you had a direct one on one relationship between the supply and demand. It is not that simple and business professional understand this, but a graduate and an evaluation team for a policy might not. With interest we note that the EUAA has an upcoming program based on New Energy Paradigm – Better Energy, Better Business. The word ‘better’ we assume means the amateurs will be kept away and only the business astute will be debating the program! The logic being a new paradigm forms the basis of something. But what if the carbon tax or RET can no longer be blamed for some of the highest electricity costs in the developed world. What do you blame then? What then would be the outstandingly clear or typical example or archetype of the cause? Again it would not be hard to consider the amateur was being too ready to expose a popular view without sufficient knowledge of the facts.

Pondering this issue along came a story about the Sydney Second airport and a mad bit of posturing by the small business Minister to an audience on how they will fix who ever gets in their way. The story:

Airport chief slams minister’s delay statement, 06 Sep 2014, Sydney Morning Herald, Sydney: Badgerys Creek Talk of ‘another partner’ –

“A key federal government minister has warned Sydney Airport that if it delays the process of building an airport at Badgerys Creek, the government will find another partner to help build the project.

But that warning immediately produced a backlash from the chairman of Sydney Airport Corporation, Max Moore-Wilton, who stressed that Sydney Airport retained the first right to build another airport in Sydney. He also questioned the seniority of the minister delivering the warning.

“This is not a game for talented amateurs,” Mr Moore-Wilton said. “This is business.””

The illustration here is a very important one. It is business that works to contain costs and it is opportunists that are the costs.

Possibly the more damming is when “Asked about Mr Briggs’ comments, Mr Moore-Wilton said: “We are following in good faith the provision of the legislation governing the process for considering a second Sydney Airport.

I imagine since it’s a legal obligation, Mr Briggs ought to consider his statements very carefully … we paid for the right to negotiate.”

It is all about the ‘right’ is it not?

For those that did not know Max Moore-Wilton, in the days before being Chair of Sydney Airport was secretary of the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet. We guess he can see an amateur from a long way off and knows business very well.

patterns of behavior – natural gas prices up

Researching Gas Cogeneration for the built environment you will be told many different stories about feed stock prices. The more common story is we are over the costs blow-outs because of world shortage around 2006, so expect prices will go down. However, the opposite is likely to happen, the costs are going up. Why? The answer is complex. It depends on how you participate and where you participate.

CO2Land org takes note of ValueInvestorcanada.blogspot.com that has a very good article going through this argument from the perspective of an equity analyst. The premise of this article is rising gas prices would be good for people holding stock in gas suppy companies. The argument is based on American activites, being:

1 – Any energy company that can move capital spending away from natural gas drilling and into oil is doing so (Ed. a major driller doing just that).

2 – U.S. LNG import facilities are being converted to LNG export facilities. That will allow producers to get world prices, which are 4-6 times higher than North American prices.

3 – A continued shift from coal to natural gas as a source of power, for economics and the environment.

4 – At some point won’t the government get behind a plan to move to natural gas as a transportation fuel? Instead of having to rely on the Middle East, Venezuela and Nigeria to provide oil to the U.S. wouldn’t it make more sense to use natural gas which the U.S. has in abundance?

5 – Producers have hedges in place at the high rates they could get a few years ago. When those hedges expire they will only get a price for gas which might be below their break even level.

Then www.energyshop.com posts:

Dec 2012 – Driven by Oil Shale Economics, Natural Gas Prices Primed for Slow and Steady Rise – Forbes

“As long as oil stays close to $90 per barrel, it appears likely that the gas supply will continue to throttle back, and the supply overhang will continue to dwindle. In the meantime, demand is likely to grow in a variety of sectors, prices will rise, and a longer-term price equilibrium will eventually kick into place. Gas at $5 to $6 per mmBtu may well be in our foreseeable future. So, for now, drillers are generally going to prove up reserves and sit on them until the price of gas relative to oil makes it profitable to produce. ”

The last paragraph above clear shows a strategy is most likely to be based on profit. For those interested mmBtu as shown above can be interpreted as between 1.054GJ to 1.060GJ and 1GJ at 3.9 degrees C is 26.8cubic metres of natural gas. Source – Society of Petroleum Engineers (www.spe.org)

The Australian Experiences

In Australia we are seeing very similar patterns of behavior and we believe LNG exports to ASIA will be the price setter for energy prices in the foreseeable future.

We also note that cash strapped State Governments will seek to maximize the royalties from natural reserves including Natural Gas, Shale Oil, Petroleum and Coal Seam Methane extraction.

All of this will not be a surprise to most people, however the elephant in the room lies in how it is regulated and ‘allowed’ to get to your need. In Australia and in particular the Eastern Seaboard the federally based Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has oversight, yet State based jurisdictions allow different treatments of price setting.

In more detail:

Victorian Wholesale Gas Market Data

A range of real time data sets from the Declared Wholesale Gas Market in Victoria uploaded from the Market Information Bulletin Board (MIBB) including price and withdrawals, ancillary payments, bid stacks, consumption, demand forecast, effective degree day, registered participants, heating values, gas quality data and more. Source – AEMO.

Short Term Trading Market

A range of data sets offering real time data from the Short Term Trading Market (STTM) system including ex ante market price, provisional market price, mos stack data, allocation quantity, schedule log, hub and facility definitions, total contingency bid & offer, default allocation notice, contingency gas price and more. Source – AEMO.

Viva la difference between the two market information sets as the STTM price represents a delivered price of gas to the Hub. That is, it includes both the commodity and the cost of transportation to the hub, unlike the Victorian Declared Wholesale Gas Market price which is a commodity price only.

Then come the area distribution effects on facility charges, the fees to distribute and that can include the trucking or reticulation. Other government changes and fees also.

The price you WILL pay, may change at any time.

Because of the range of commodity, transport, reticulation and delivery charges and government charges numerous bodies have argued it in itself brings about investment uncertainty. All well and good to talk about, however, one constant remains regardless to what is intended it is the opportunity to game that will not set but influence the price you will pay.

The Energy Users Association of Australia (EUAA), www.euaa.com.au , has presented several stories in January alone on the gas crisis that looms in Australia and now have a dedicated company page that features what is sees as the issues. The Australian Financial Review on 21, 22 and 23 January 2013 ran stories of a similar view from a number of sources. One story by Peter Roberts commented Western Australia’s reserving of 15% of gas supply for domestic use is under threat and it is further reported large Australian Companies cannot get supply contracts further out than 2 years, and those proposing new facilities are not able to secure any gas supply contract, or are finding it very difficult. In terms of what has happened around the country in gas prices since 2009 the following average gas price increases have been, despite adequate supply capability, Queensland 98%, NSW 79%, Victoria 80%, South Australia 78%, Western Australia 170%.

In term of what this means, the CEO Brickworks is quoted as saying his group now pays $8 GJ in Sydney (up from $4 GJ), Brisbane and Perth $12 GJ.

All writers expect the prices to rise more, and the reasons are given that transitions in the market are bringing conditions of uncertainty, and the export markets are getting policy priority. In another example it is quoted Japan is paying $15 GJ for Natural Liquid Gas (the form gas is transported).  The conclusion is therefore you will need to be very careful in how you evaluate your future gas price in your projects. In particular when considering fuel substitution focused projects such as cogeneration.

Co2Land org intends to look deeper into the price effects and predictions of the energy market and will post these accordingly.